Actually, it’s wide receivers.
2016 RANKINGS: QB | RB | WR | TE | D/ST | K
Running backs will never be dogged like kickers or left waiting like quarterbacks, but the frustrating former keystone fantasy football position is getting the cold shoulder nowadays. We finish up Sporting News Fantasy’s positional draft strategy preview with a breakdown of five different ways to draft running backs in leagues this summer.
Who are the best fantasy football picks at running back?
RB draft strategy No. 1: You’re still the one!
Monogamy is not dead. You can still be married to the running backs in Round 1 of your draft. The trick is zeroing in on the elite group of backs who couple as their team’s chain mover and red-zone finisher.
There are just so few Mr. Rights out there. Just four to be exact, if you’re using the SN Fantasy’s running back rankings to populate your cheat sheet.
Todd Gurley, Los Angeles Rams Devonta Freeman, Atlanta Falcons David Johnson, Arizona Cardinals Adrian Peterson, Minnesota Vikings
These project to be the lone candidates to rush for 1,200 yards and score 12-15 touchdowns combined rushing and receiving. It used to be there were about a dozen of so of these producers at the running back position, but now that offenses are finishing more and more with the pass to score touchdowns, this group is whittled down to a select few.
If won’t just be the rushing numbers with Freeman or Johnson either. Both backs are widely employed weapons in the short passing game for impeccably accurate veteran starting quarterbacks Matt Ryan and Carson Palmer, respectively.
Freeman is especially intriguing, which is why he makes the cut for this select group of first-round running backs. As Daily Fantasy Cafe’s running back targets breakdown notes, Freeman was the third-most targeted running back in the NFL last season. Like the emerging Cardinals’ Johnson (David, not old man CJ2K), these two backs can roll with the ground-pounders Gurly and A.P. because of their dynamic receiving skills.
The good news with employing this running back draft strategy and scoring one of the above is you’re surely not following the sheep with the wideouts. Those guys are all competing for the same prizes, as we wrote in our wide receiver draft strategies last week.
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2016 fantasy football RB rankings: Who’s in Tier 2?
RB draft strategy No. 2: Get one sure-fire starter.
As we mentioned above, for those of you still wet behind the ears in fantasy strategy, drafters used to pick all of their starting running backs — right through the flex spot even — before they even thought about picking someone from another position. There are just not enough worthy backs available for that strategy any longer.
Heck, you might be hard-pressed to like a running back enough to get even one through the first two rounds of your draft.
This second strategy comes into play if you still need to outfit your fantasy football team with a running back who will be immune to the matchups and be a worthy starter for you every week, no questions asked. We see just 11 such players on the running back board. Here are the next seven:
Ezekiel Elliott, Dallas Cowboys Lamar Miller, Houston Texans LeSean McCoy, Buffalo Bills Le’Veon Bell, Pittsburgh Steelers Doug Martin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers Mark Ingram, New Orleans Saints Jamaal Charles, Kansas City Chiefs
The Steelers’ Bell is the one to watch in this group. If he wins an appeal of his four-game suspension, he is going to not only rise in this tier, but also go all the way to the top of the first group — if not be the No. 1 overall pick. (UPDATE: His suspension was reduced to three games.)
You can make a case to pick some of these guys late in Round 1, but only if Rob Gronkowski is off the board — as we wrote in the tight end draft strategies in early August — and your league is squarely on the side of waiting for their passers, as we wrote in our quarterback draft strategies in July.
SLEEPERS: One from each team | 14 RBs | 7 QBs | 12 WRs | 9 TEs
RB draft strategy No. 3: Drop the zero(-RB strategy), get some heroes.
We will give the Zero-RB strategists their due on this one important fantasy reality: Bell-cow running backs are a thing of the past. This doesn’t mean there aren’t more backs to go around, though. Timeshares create that for us.
We just have to consider filling out our running back starters a couple of rounds later.
Here is where RB draft strategy No. 3 comes into play: You know you can wait on quarterbacks and tight ends, as we prescribed and you don’t have to only drafts wide receivers, so set out to score two top-25 starting running backs through your draft’s first four rounds. You could pair that with two top-10 pass-catchers and really have a strong foundation.
We especially favor this strategy because in this next tier of running backs there are a number of former first-round fantasy favorites and, perhaps, a few future fantasy first-rounders. The modern-day degradation of the back — along with the overhyping of receiving divas — has given us more value for our running back picks in the third and fourth rounds.
Jonathan Stewart, Carolina Panthers Thomas Rawls, Seattle Seahawks Matt Forte, New York Jets DeMarco Murray, Tennessee Titans Eddie Lacy, Green Bay Packers Carlos Hyde, San Francisco 49ers Latavius Murray, Oakland Raiders Jeremy Langford, Chicago Bears Jeremy Hill, Cincinnati Bengals C.J. Anderson, Denver Broncos
We have yet to see the best of Rawls, Hyde, Langford and Hill. Each of these guys could be first-rounders in fantasy drafts with a breakout 2016 campaign. Stewart, Forte, DeMarco and Anderson can all prove to have one more big fantasy year on their well-trodden tires.
MORE DRAFT STRATEGY AND TIERS:QB | RB | WR | TE | D/ST | PPR leagues
2016 fantasy football sleepers: Running backs
RB draft strategy No. 4: All-in on Zero-RB, give me the leftovers.
Who are some running back sleepers and breakouts?
Giovani Bernard, Cincinnati Bengals Danny Woodhead, San Diego Chargers Matt Jones, Washington Redskins Arian Foster, Miami Dolphins Frank Gore, Indianapolis Colts Ameer Abdullah, Detroit Lions Ryan Mathews, Philadelphia Eagles Melvin Gordon, San Diego Chargers DeAngelo Williams, Pittsburgh Steelers Jay Ajayi, Miami Dolphins Tevin Coleman, Atlanta Falcons Duke Johnson, Cleveland Browns LeGarrette Blount, New England Patriots Spencer Ware, Kansas City Chiefs Christine Michael, Seattle Seahawks Isaiah Crowell, Cleveland Browns Terrance West, Baltimore Ravens Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans T.J. Yeldon, Jacksonville Jaguars Rashad Jennings, New York Giants
As a fantasy veteran, those are some scary prospects right there. Not only will you struggle to get more than two of these guys, you will also probably be left running both them out there on a weekly basis.
It is no way to live, we would say. You better love those early-round wide receivers you drafted and hope their respective quarterbacks better stay upright for the balance of the fantasy season.
Nevertheless, if you’re in this boat by more happenstance than choice, we do like the upside of the following post-hype running backs for these specified reasons:
Giovani Bernard. If Jeremy Hill gets banged up, a bell-cow job will be all his own.Matt Jones. Second-year back with a high ceiling who will be a first-time starter.Ameer Abdullah. He’s too talented to be marginalized by the Lions in the post-Calvin Johnson era.Ryan Mathews. OK, OK, so you have heard this one before.Melvin Gordon. All that oozing college talent gets a mulligan in Year 2.Tevin Coleman. Like Bernard, he’s one of those famed fantasy “handcuffs.”Duke Johnson/Isaiah Crowell. Someone has to get yards and touchdowns for the Browns, right?Derrick Henry. We like Murray for a rebound year, but in the event we’re wrong…T.J. Yeldon. Just about every one of the comments above might apply to him.
A special note on the incredibly high ceiling on the Falcons’ Coleman, from Daily Fantasy Cafe’s advanced snap counts report: Freeman, the aforementioned (rare) fantasy first-rounder, played a team-high 67 percent of the Falcons’ snaps last season. Coleman was just a rookie, however.
If the snap counts for the above running backs increase — which goes for just about any talented backup back, mind you — so too will fantasy production. If you can find the sleepers of the snap-count statistic, you’re well on you way to unearthing some hidden draft-day fantasy value.
2016 FANTASY FOOTBALL RANKINGS: QB | RB | WR | TE | D/ST | K
2016 Fantasy football running back handcuffs, sleepers
RB draft strategy No. 5: The disaster plan.
If you have played fantasy football long enough, you know the best-laid plans rarely work out the way you envisioned. Sometimes you’re scrambling at the end of a draft, trying to make sense out of the running backs you are likely to cut after some Joe Schmoe waiver-wire wideout goes off for five catches, 65 yards and a touchdown in Week 1.
It happens to the best of us. Here are those guys.
James White, Patriots Buck Allen, Ravens Paul Perkins, Giants Ka’Deem Carey, Bears James Starks, Packers Cameron Artis-Payne, Panthers DeAndre Washington, Raiders Devontae Booker, Broncos Theo Riddick, Lions Reggie Bush, Bills Kenjon Barner, Eagles Darren Sproles, Eagles Bilal Powell, Jets Robert Kelley, Redskins Chris Johnson, Cardinals Alfred Morris, Cowboys Robert Turbin, Colts Mike Gillislee, Bills Wendell Smallwood, Eagles Charles Sims, Buccaneers Chris Thompson, Redskins Shane Vereen, Giants Jerick McKinnon, Vikings Charcandrick West, Chiefs Andre Ellington, Cardinals Josh Ferguson, Colts Jordan Howard, Bears Alfred Blue, Texans Shaun Draughn, 49ers Tim Hightower, Saints Benny Cunningham, Rams C.J. Prosise, Seahawks Kenneth Dixon, Ravens
The ancillary advice here is to:
1. Pick running backs age 27 or younger. It is a kid’s position. (Look for any rookie who impresses in the preseason but didn’t already get overhyped and drafted too early.)
2. Potentially draft the “handcuffs” of your starting running backs, if some of the following conditions exist…
- Draft your RB depth from the most potent offensive teams (look to the early-round quarterbacks to decipher such teams: Cam Newton, Aaron Rodgers, Andrew Luck, Russell Wilson, Ben Roethlisberger, Drew Brees, etc.).
4. Draft the young backup backs playing behind starters who are 28 and older (Baltimore’s Buck Allen or Indianapolis’ Josh Ferguson, for instance).
5. Draft the backups of injury-prone veterans (whichever Chiefs back winds up No. 2 to Jamaal Charles).
Often, fantasy football’s running back surprises come from one of those categories. You can really score some fantasy value relative to draft position.
Make no mistake, with the one-time beloved running back position in fantasy football, you need a nice Rolodex of potential mistresses.
