But does Gronk really have such big value over Graham for 2015? Here’s a breakdown:
Gronk and Graham have traded place here a bit. Gronk, after two injury-marred seasons, shot back up to produce like a WR1 with his 82 catches for 1,124 yards and 12 TDs in 15 games.
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Graham was no slouch in his final year in New Orleans with 85 catches for 889 yards and 10 TDs in a full 16 games. But the difference was Graham losing his big-play edge while Gronk didn’t.
There’s the separation in 2015. If Gronk stays healthy, we should know exactly what to expect in the same Patriots offense. Going from the pass-happy Saints to the run-heavy Seahawks, everyone expects Graham to have fewer targets and catches with maybe the same yardage and scoring.
Although that’s a little bit overblown – the Seahawks did get Graham to improve their downfield pop, and take better advantage of Russell Wilson’s arm — there is natural trepidation with the unknown. You shouldn’t really “fear” taking Graham, because he has the same durability risk as Gronkowski just by the physical nature of the position.
For Gronk, Jimmy Garoppolo potentially starting four games won’t hurt too much. It may actually help, as the young QB is likely to lean more on his explosive security blanket than any other Patriots receiver.
The gap isn’t as wide as it’s been made out to be between Gronk and Graham, but it’s enough.
The Decision: Take Gronk ahead of Graham, but not too many picks higher.
