But just how much do you buy into the massive hype in a Dallas newbie not named Ezekiel Elliott?
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First, it’s important to consider where Romo, when not totally unhealthy, was going in most fantasy football drafts in 2016.
He was considered a borderline QB1, on the brink of going back to weekly reliability in standard 12-team leagues, and was carrying an 8th-to-9th round average draft position.
The fact that Romo was going into the season with durability issues and a bad back at age 36 was already built into that ADP. He was right in the middle of a clustered third tier that also includes Eli Manning, Derek Carr, Blake Bortles and Philip Rivers.
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Prescott, meanwhile, has no injury issues; just major inexperience. Since the magical season of 2012, when Robert Griffin III (No. 5), Andrew Luck (No. 8) and Russell Wilson (No. 9) all broke in, no rookie quarterback has finished in the top 10 in scoring at the position. Last season, James Winston finished No. 13 after starting every game. The ceiling was in ‘11, when Cam Newton finished third behind Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady.
What did all those rookie quarterbacks have in common, besides their fine physical talent? They either had great versatile receivers, great individual running production, or in the case of Newton and Griffin, both.
Diving deeper into the ‘11 Panthers and ‘12 Redskins, they were both elite NFC rushing teams beyond Newton and Griffin.
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Prescott has already spread the ball around well to Dez Bryant, Terrance Williams, Brice Butler and Jason Witten for impressive touchdowns. He showed off his athleticism against the Dolphins by running it in twice, including a 20-yard burst.
As for that running game? With the Cowboys’ high level of blocking and fellow rookie Ezekiel Elliott as the new workhorse, they can improve on the domination of 2014 with league rushing champion DeMarco Murray.
If you’re loading your team with a lot of rookies and young potential breakout players, it’s already in your DNA to be aggressive with your picks.
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All this means you should target Prescott well before you would have gone after Romo: He’s in a terrific offensive situation, with the keys to the same schedule and weaponry. Whatever rookie mistakes he makes as a passer, he can compensate with in fantasy numbers when he takes off and runs.
Consider that there are several fantasy owners ready to take that risk on Tom Brady in the late sixth round of 17, despite the fact he’s already missing four games. Right after that, mid-to-late 7th round is the range in which Prescott should be going. He’s healthy, and for now, he’s on track to play most of the Cowboys’ schedule.
You can afford to be that aggressive with Prescott. There’s plenty of similar quarterback values after the first 6-7 are off the board where you can be OK if he doesn’t work out. A la Brady, you’ll take a solid QB2, except you know, barring injury, you won’t need that guy to fill in on the front end. If for some reason, it looks like Romo will beat all estimates in his return, you can stash him off the waiver wire on the champ around Dallas’ Week 7 bye.
Fantasy football isn’t won by fearing the unknown. You don’t need to be a big fan of Big D to want to attack Dak as sleeper in your drafts.