What makes starting pitcher so difficult to handicap is the unreliability of wins, and, to a slightly lesser extent, ERA. Oh, and the injuries. Sure, there are similar issues with hitters, but pitchers seem to fluctuate more wildly – and their injuries seem to be more devastating.
2020 Fantasy Baseball Rankings:Catcher | First | Second | Third | Short | Outfield | Starter | Reliever | Top 300
So, as we always caution, take our rankings with a grain of salt. A surprise amount of wins can send a pitcher flying up the standard fantasy rankings, while a lucky or unlucky BABIP or FIP year can really affect an ERA or WHIP.
Because of this, it’s tough to recommend a specific draft strategy involving pitchers. The best of the best, like Gerrit Cole and Max Scherzer, seem like sure things, but even if they stay in one piece, they might not pay off that first- or second-round price tag. Perhaps more important, offensive players can potentially contribute in five categories while a starter can contribute in just four. There’s nothing wrong with wanting a Tier-1 ace in the first three rounds, but you’ll be feeling like you’re playing catch-up on offense for the first half of your draft.
If you’re confident in your ability to draft hitters, then be all means grab a pitcher early, but as long as you get at least one hurler from the first three tiers and look for value throughout the rest of your draft, you can build a solid rotation. If all else fails, you can always play matchups and stream once the season starts.
Depending how deep your league is, you will probably want to leave your draft with at least six or seven SPs – the last one or two of which should be intriguing late-around sleepers. Weekly leaguers playing in a five-SP/two-RP format really need just four reliable starters, as streaming at least one two-start SP every week usually makes sense. If you don’t like streaming or simply want to feel “safer” after your draft, then you’ll probably spend several early-middle and middle-round picks on starters, so plan accordingly.
As a reminder, our sub-tiers are based on the type of production a player offers. If a pitcher is in, say, Tier 4B, it doesn’t mean he’s worse overall than someone in Tier 4A; it just means he’s better or worse in a specific category (i.e. more strikeouts, generally lower WHIP, etc.).
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There’s a case to be made for Max Scherzer and Gerrit Cole to be in Tier 1 by themselves because of their elevated K-rates, but it’s not as if the rest of these guys don’t strike out a lot of batters, too. That said, we won’t deny the impact of Cole striking out 95 more batters than Jack Flaherty in the same number of starts last year. That’s category-winning stuff.
Scherzer and Cole aren’t perfect, though. Scherzer had some minor injury issues last year and is 35; Cole has seen a noticeable decline in ground-ball rate the past two seasons and will now pitch his home games in one of the most homer-happy parks in baseball. While we still expect them to dominate, it’s possible the other guys in this tier have similar, if not better, all-around impacts.
All six of these pitchers will likely be gone by the third round, with Cole and possibly Scherzer and Jacob deGrom going in the first. It’s difficult using one of your top-three picks on a position with so much volatility, but if anyone’s worth it, it’s one of these aces. You can wait until the second or maybe even third tier before drafting your first SP, but you’ll feel like you have a leg up on everyone else if you draft one of the pitchers below.
If you target a Tier-1 SP, then have some specific hitter targets in mind for filling in the offensive gaps. That might mean trying to play the scarcity game and grabbing the one elite 3B who steals bases (Jose Ramirez) in the second round, or it might mean making sure you get a speedster with some power like Jonathan Villar and Adalberto Mondesi in the fourth round. It could also mean sacrificing average with a massive power hitter like Joey Gallo a few rounds later.
TIER 1 Max Scherzer, Nationals Gerrit Cole, Yankees Jacob deGrom, Mets Justin Verlander, Astros Mike Clevinger, Indians Walker Buehler, Dodgers Jack Flaherty, Cardinals
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2020 Fantasy Baseball Tiers: Tier-2 SPs
Every pitcher in Tier 2 either has been or undoubtedly has the potential to be in Tier 1. If you pass on the Tier-1 pitchers and take your first SP in Rounds 4-6, you’re still going to get a stud. All of these pitchers should strike out more than a batter per inning and post good ERAs and WHIPs.
The reason these guys aren’t in Tier 1 varies. Some have injury worries; others just haven’t quite proven themselves over the course of a full season or for more than one year (Tyler Glasnow, Chris Paddack, Lucas Giolito); still others regressed last year (Blake Snell, Aaron Nola, Patrick Corbin).
Again, these are all potential aces, and you can really take them in any order. Many would argue for Charlie Morton to be higher, but at 36, we have minor worries about his age (more so than Justin Verlander in the tier above, who’s a year older but been better the past two seasons).
TIER 2 Blake Snell, Rays Stephen Strasburg, Nationals Luis Castillo, Reds Lucas Giolito, White Sox Tyler Glasnow, Rays Shane Bieber, Indians Chris Paddack, Padres Charlie Morton, Rays Aaron Nola, Phillies Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers Patrick Corbin, Nationals
2020 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers:Catcher | First | Second | Third | Short | Outfielder | Starter | Each team
Fantasy Baseball Rankings: Tier-3 SPs
Most fantasy owners won’t want a Tier-3 starter as their No. 1, but it’s likely at least a couple of these guys will finish the year worthy of that distinction. Obviously, we’re taking an optimistic view of some young pitchers with questions marks (Jesus Luzardo, Frankie Montas, Lance McCullers Jr., Mike Soroka), and we’re giving the benefit of the doubt to some veterans (Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, J), but overall, these are very talented pitchers who we know can perform at a high level.
The pitchers in Tier 3A should all strike out a batter per inning. Some have higher strikeout upside (Montas, McCullers, Carraco, Luzardo, Sonny Gray) than others (Jose Berrios, Kluber), but they can all be considered “strikeout” pitchers. Tier 3B consists of pitchers who likely won’t get quite many Ks (but still a decent amount), but they’re safe bets in ERA and WHIP.
There’s a lot of upside in this tier, and sometimes a few of these guys – usually the veterans – will fall a little too far in drafts. Be on the lookout for that and take advantage. Getting someone from this tier to pair with a Tier-1 or Tier-2 pitcher will give you a great start to your rotation. If you passed on pitchers from the first two tiers, don’t be shy about grabbing two Tier-3 guys, perhaps on back-to-back picks.
TIER 3A Frankie Montas, A’s James Paxton, Yankees Lance McCullers Jr., Astros Corey Kluber, Rangers Carlos Carrasco, Indians Jesus Luzardo, A’s Jose Berrios, Twins Sonny Gray, Reds Max Fried, Braves Luke Weaver, D-backs
TIER 3B Mike Soroka, Braves Hyun-Jin Ryu, Blue Jays Zack Greinke, Astros
2020 Fantasy Baseball Tiers, Draft Strategy:Catcher | First | Second | Third | Short | Outfield | Reliever
Fantasy Baseball Breakouts, Bounce-Backs, and Boring Veterans: Tier-4 SPs
Tier 4 is where things really getting interesting. You have some pitchers who have been aces in the past (Trevor Bauer, Lance Lynn, Yu Darvish, Madison Bumgarner), and some pitchers who seem to be on the verge of breaking out (Zac Gallen, Dinelson Lamet, Joey Lucchesi, Sean Manaea). Either way, all have potential issues that are tough to ignore, which is why most will be drafted as SP3s or SP4s.
We’ve broken down this group into three tiers: Tier 4A consists of solid strikeout pitchers with decent peripherals; Tier 4B features higher-strikeout pitchers with ERA/WHIP worries (usually because of homers or walks); and Tier 4C has guys with slightly lower strikeout upside but perhaps the best ERA/WHIP potential. These sub-tiers aren’t perfect – Zack Wheeler doesn’t limit base runners as well as Bumgarner, Lynn pitched like an ace last year and should arguably be up a tier, and Darvish isn’t as big of a WHIP worry as Robbie Ray and Matt Boyd – but in general, they’re similar pitchers.
Most owners will opt for the higher strikeout upside of the pitchers in Tier 4B. That makes sense, but this is the most volatile sub-tier, so make sure you already have some low-WHIP pitchers.
As with Tier 3, you can make a case for taking two guys in quick succession from Tier 4. Once you get this deep into the SP rankings, it’s tough predict when pitchers will go off the board. Darvish will likely be gone, as we have him ranked lower than most sites, but someone like Jake Odorizzi could linger because, let’s face it, who’s really excited about Jake Odorizzi? Even someone like Bumgarner could fall too far, and while we’re worried about his shift in parks (he was noticeably better over his career in San Francisco), he still could easily post a 3.30/1.15 line with a solid strikeout rate.
The high likelihood that at least a couple of Tier-4 guys fall is why you shouldn’t overdraft pitchers from the first three tiers. The key is reading your draft. If pitchers are going early, then you might need to be a little more aggressive. Otherwise, clean up the values.
TIER 4A Jake Odorizzi, Twins Lance Lynn, Rangers Brandon Woodruff, Brewers Zac Gallen, D-backs Kenta Maeda, Twins
TIER 4B Yu Darvish, Cubs Trevor Bauer, Reds Dinelson Lamet, Padres Eduardo Rodriguez, Red Sox Joey Lucchesi, Padres Robbie Ray, D-backs Matt Boyd, Tigers
TIER 4C Sean Manaea, A’s Zack Wheeler, Phillies Marcus Stroman, Mets Madison Bumgarner, D-backs Kyle Hendricks, Cubs
Fantasy Baseball Sleepers: Tier-5 SPs
Tier 5 has some potential aces (Julio Urias, Shohei Ohtani, Brendan McKay), but all have injury/usage concerns. The rest of the pitchers in this tier are undoubtedly talented, but whether it’s worries about experience (Aaron Civale, A.J. Puk, Adrian Houser, Griffin Canning) or park (Masahiro Tanaka, Tyler Mahle, German Marquez, Jon Gray, Mike Minor), it’s tough to go all-in on them.
Tier 5A features pitchers with slightly lower strikeout upside but ones who typically fair well in WHIP; Tier 5B is higher strikeout guys who have homer or walk concerns. As is often the case with pitchers, most owners will opt for the higher strikeout guys, but don’t overlook the value of lower-ERA/WHIP pitchers.
It’s good to have at least one of these guys on your team. You’ll be able to get them in the late-middle or late rounds, so the opportunity cost isn’t too high. Again, look for values as they come to you.
TIER 5A Julio Urias, Dodgers Joe Musgrove, Pirates Mike Minor, Rangers Anthony DeSclafani, Reds Aaron Civale, Indians Masahiro Tanaka, Yankees Jordan Montgomery, Yankees
TIER 5B Shoehei Ohtani, Angels Adrian Houser, Brewers Tyler Mahle, Reds German Marquez, Rockies Carlos Martinez, Cardinals Jon Gray, Rockies Andrew Heaney, Angels Caleb Smith, Marlins Brendan McKay, Rays Griffin Canning, Angels Mitch Keller, Pirates A.J. Puk, A’s
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Fantasy Baseball Tiers: Tier-6 SPs
Instead of categorizing our Tier-6 pitchers by production, we instead grouped them by the type: Tier 6A is veterans, and Tier 6B is younger pitchers. They’re not all created equal, but if it’s one of the last rounds of your draft and you’re staring at pitchers from this tier in your queue, you will probably base your decision on whether you prefer experience or upside.
Obviously, we’ve cast a wide net here, and the players at the top of each sub-tier have more upside than those at the bottom, but given the volatility of the position – and the fact most of these pitchers won’t be drafted, especially in shallow leagues – we grouped them into one.
TIER 6A Jose Quintana, Cubs Gio Gonzalez, White Sox Dallas Keuchel, White Sox Josh Lindblom, Brewers Cole Hamels, Braves Jon Lester, Cubs Chris Archer, Pirates Miles Mikolas, Cardinals Kevin Gausman, Giants Julio Teheran, Angels Steven Matz, Mets Homer Bailey, Twins Marco Gonzales, Mariners Brad Peacock, Astros Dylan Bundy, Angels Rick Porcello, Mets Jeff Samardzija, Giants Kyle Gibson, Rangers Johnny Cueto, Giants Jake Arrieta, Phillies Mike Foltynewicz, Braves
TIER 6B Justus Sheffield, Mariners Spencer Turnbull, Tigers Zach Plesac, Indians Jordan Yamamoto, Marlins Ryan Yarbrough, Rays Pablo Lopez, Marlins Ross Stripling, Dodgers Yonny Chirinos, Rays Dylan Cease, White Sox Jose Urquidy, Astros Forrest Whitley, Astros John Means, Orioles
