The simplest question is whether you should wait on pitching and piece together a rotation with sleepers and matchup-based streamers or if you should go in on an ace early. There are advantages and drawbacks to both, but either way, mid- and late-round sleepers will be key.
DOMINATE YOUR DRAFT: 2019 ultimate cheat sheet
We’ll do our best to break down types of pitchers (i.e. high-K guys vs. low-WHIP guys) and the reliableness of different tiers of pitchers, as well as when to target them in your drafts.
Note: All position-eligible designations based on Yahoo default settings.
2019 Fantasy Baseball Rankings: Catcher | First | Second | Third | Short | Outfield | Starter | Reliever | Top 300
Who are the best fantasy baseball SPs?
We’ve had some expansive tiers, even for the Tier 1 guys, at other positions, but we’re limiting our Tier 1 SPs – and you could argue we should limit it even more to just the top three guys.
Max Scherzer, Chris Sale, and Jacob deGrom figure to be the top three pitchers drafted in most leagues, with at least one (Scherzer) going in the first round of most drafts. Sale and deGrom are also in the mix as borderline first-round picks in 12-team leagues. What sets them apart is impeccable across-the-board numbers and elite strikeout. deGrom has only had this all-around level of success once, so you could argue that someone like Corey Kluber is just as good, but deGrom seems to be improving while Kluber seems to be (slightly) declining, so that’s why there’s differentiation.
It’s not as if Kluber, Justin Verlander, and Gerrit Cole are consolation prizes. All have a case to be second-round picks. Cole trailed only Sale in K/9 ratio among starters last year (12.4), though it was a sharp improvement from his previous career-best of 9.0. Is it sustainable? Ditto for Verlander, who improved from a 9.6 K/9 ratio and 3.2 BB/9 ratio to 12.2 and 1.6 marks, respectively. Regression seems likely, but how much?
Conversely, Kluber dropped from an 11.7 K/9 in 2017 to 9.3 last year, so it’s tough to know what to expect this year. Either way, he won’t walk anyone or give up many homers, making him an ideal SP1 who won’t cost you a first-round pick.
TIER 1A (First-round studs) Max Scherzer, Nationals Chris Sale, Red Sox Jacob deGrom, Mets
TIER 1B (Second-round studs) Justin Verlander, Astros Gerrit Cole, Astros Corey Kluber, Indians
MORE RANKINGS TIERS, DRAFT STRATEGYCatcher | First | Second | Third | Short | Outfield | Closer
2019 Fantasy Baseball SP Rankings: Tier 2
We have to start by pointing out that being in Tier 2B doesn’t mean a pitcher is worse than those in Tier 2A, it just means he’s different in some way. With this tier, we’re breaking up pitchers based on injury worries. That’s not to say there those in Tier 2A are worry-free – every pitcher has potential injury issues – but those in Tier 2B have more fo a checkered medical history.
Many will argue there’s a big difference between, say, Aaron Nola, a consensus third-round pick, and Jose Berrios, a seventh- or eighth-round pick. And while we’re not going to argue Berrios is better, the bottom line is both have similar K- and BB-rates, with Berrios prone to giving up more homers. At 24, Berrios still has plenty of room to improve (as does the 25-year-old Nola), and we’re anticipating a bit of a breakout for Berrios, which is why we have them in the same tier.
Of course, it would be surprising if Berrios became a Tier 1 pitcher next year, while many of the other pitchers in this tier have either been there or very close. Trevor Bauer was about as lights out as it gets last season, posting a 2.21 ERA and significantly dropping his HR-rate to 0.46. The reason he’s not in Ter 1 this year is because he previously had never posted an ERA below 4.18 or an HR-rate under 0.94. Maybe he’s finally figured it all out, but there are still regression worries. The same is true for Blake Snell, who significantly improved in K/BB ratio and saw his swinging-strike rate skyrocket from 10.8 percent to 15.1.
The pitchers in Tier 2B are bona fide aces, but lasting full seasons (i.e. 30-plus starts) might be too much to ask for. Clayton Kershaw (back) and Luis Severino (shoulder) are already dealing with injuries and will likely miss the first two-to-four weeks of the season. It’s rare you can get aces like that at reduced costs, so if you trust your ability to stream early in the season, grabbing one in fourth or fifth round could a steal…or it could be a completely wasted pick.
Most of these guys can function as an SP1, but some will invariably be SP2s. If you have one in that slot, consider yourself ahead of the game.
TIER 2A (Potential SP1s) Aaron Nola, Phillies Carlos Carrasco, Indians Blake Snell, Rays Walker Buehler, Dodgers Patrick Corbin, Nationals Trevor Bauer, Indians Jose Berrios, Twins Zack Greinke, D-backs Mike Clevinger, Indians Jack Flaherty, Cardinals
TIER 2B (Potential SP1s with injury issues) Noah Syndergaard, Mets James Paxton, Yankees Stephen Strasburg, Nationals Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers Luis Severino, Yankees
Fantasy Baseball Draft Strategy: Potential studs and sleeper SPs
These aren’t perfect sub-tiers, as not every guy is an exact match for the criteria, but it’s a decent approximation of what we expect. There are injury risks scattered throughout (Yu Darvish, Jimmy Nelson, Masahiro Tanaka, Madison Bumgarner), but all of these pitchers have SP2 upside and a couple might even finish as SP1s.
Not all of the high-K guys in Tier 3A will strike out a ton more than the guys in Tier 3B or 3C, but Darvish, Robbie Ray, Charlie Morton, Eduardo Rodriguez, German Marquez, and Kenta Maeda all had K-rates of at least 10.0 last year (as did Jimmy Nelson the last time he pitched in 2017). You know what you’re getting from these guys, at least in one category. Nelson has the most upside if he can stay healthy, but he’ll likely be on an innings limit this year in his first season back from shoulder surgery. Mike Foltynewicz has similar upside, but he’s yet to pitch in March because of elbow soreness.
Tier 3B features two guys who have turned in good seasons but still feel like they have another gear if everything comes together. Carlos Martinez (shoulder) likely won’t be ready for opening day, though, and after spending a good chunk of last season in the bullpen, it’s fair to think we’re being overly optimistic about him.
If you feel like you can take a hit in ERA but need some help in WHIP, Tier 3C features targets for you. The K-rates of this group hover around 9.0, but it’s a solid, if unexciting, set of hurlers. Luis Castillo is probably the one one who can reach another level.
The guys in Tier 3D are simply solid pitchers. It’s possible Jameson Taillon and even Shane Bieber can hit a K per inning, but they’ll likely be a little under. Miles Mikolas will have the lowest K-rate, but he’s the best bet for a very good ERA and WHIP. Basically, these guys don’t usually walk many, which limits damage to their peripherals. With so many strikeouts available across the league, it can feel like “settling” when you draft a pitcher like this, but they can all help fantasy teams. Bieber is especially intriguing after posting a 260/19 K-to-BB ratio in 277 minor league innings.
These guys will go off the board all over the draft. Some owners will avoid the injury risks; others will embrace the high upsides. If you want to skip the early-round SP picks and mine this group for your SP1, you’re definitely taking a risk, but grabbing a couple of these guys gives your rotation plenty of potential. You could also grab your SP1 from Tier 1 and wait for your SP2 and SP3 from this tier, focusing on offense in between.
TIER 3A (High K with HR or BB issues) Yu Darvish, Cubs Charlie Morton, Rays Robbie Ray, D-backs Eduardo Rodriguez, Red Sox German Marquez, Rockies Tyler Skaggs, Angels Kenta Maeda, Dodgers Mike Foltynewicz, Braves
TIER 3B (Good K, medium HR, high BB) Carlos Martinez, Cardinals Zack Wheeler, Mets
TIER 3C (Good K, high HR, low BB) Masahiro Tanaka, Yankees David Price, Red Sox Luis Castillo, Reds J.A. Happ, Yankees Rick Porcello, Red Sox Jimmy Nelson, Brewers
TIER 3D (Decent K, good ERA/WHIP) Jameson Taillon, Pirates Madison Bumgarner, Giants Miles Mikolas, Cardinals Kyle Hendricks, Cubs Shane Bieber, Indians
2019 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers:Catcher | First | Second | Third | Short | Outfield | Starter | Each team
Fantasy baseball breakouts and bounce-back SPs
Only the die-hard SP holdouts are still looking for an SP1, and most owners likely have two pitchers at this point in the draft. It’s not crazy to think a top-15 SP will emerge from this tier, but good luck picking the right candidate. These guys will land solidly in the middle and late-middle rounds, but there’s legit upside here in the form of undervalued veterans or potential breakouts.
We’ve tiered them off based solely on strikeouts because that’s the one stat that seems reliable. Some are injury risks (Rich Hill, Alex Wood), some will spend time in the bullpen (Julio Urias, Alex Reyes), some are mostly unproven (Tyler Glasnow, Yusei Kikuchi), and one doesn’t even have a team (Dallas Keuchel). Furthermore, some will walk a lot of guys (Sean Newcomb, Zack Godley), which usually leads to a higher WHIP; some will walk next to none (Nathan Eovaldi, Jake Musgrove). Some will give up a lot of homers, which usually leads to higher ERAs (Joey Lucchessi, Jon Gray); some will give up relatively few (Dallas Keuchel, Kyle Freeland). Collin McHugh was a dominant reliever last year and could be poised for a big year if he can stay healthy and in the rotation, while others will fight to stay in their respective rotations.
Our favorite sleepers are Nick Pivetta, Lucchesi, Urias, Newcomb, Reyes, and Musgrove, but you’re dealing with high-risk, high-reward types no matter who you pick. It’s good to have a couple of these guys, but you don’t want to be overly dependent on them.
TIER 4A (Over a K per inning) Nick Pivetta, Phillies Chris Archer, Pirates Brad Peacock, Astros Rich Hill, Dodgers Joey Lucchesi, Padres Julio Urias, Dodgers Zack Godley, D-backs Sean Newcomb, Braves Jon Gray, Rockies Vince Velasquez, Phillies Alex Reyes, Cardinals Tyler Glasnow, Rays
TIER 4B (Slightly under a K per inning) Andrew Heaney, Angels Hyun-jin Ryu, Dodgers Alex Wood, Reds Cole Hamels, Cubs Jose Quintana, Cubs Jon Lester, Cubs
TIER 4C (Noticeably under a K per inning) Kyle Gibson, Twins Michael Wacha, Cardinals Nathan Eovaldi Red Sox Kyle Freeland, Rockies Yusei Kikuchi,, Mariners Dallas Keuchel FA Jake Arrieta, Phillies Jake Musgrove, Pirates
Fantasy Baseball Deep Sleepers: Starting Pitcher
You’re now late in your draft, and you’re probably looking for one, maybe two more starters. There are still pitchers worth drafting, though the guys in Tier 5A are always going to look more attractive that the “retreads” in Tier 5B. Most of those retreads have spots in rotations, though (well, except for the currently unsigned Gio Gonzalez), while more than a few in Tier 5A don’t have guaranteed rotation spots or will spend some time in the minors this year.
Ross Stripling was fantastic last season in 21 starts, but he could wind up coming out of the Dodgers bullpen this year. Of course, with the checkered injury histories of almost everyone currently slotted for the rotation, chances are Stripling will make a good number of starts. Luke Weaver really disappointed after a breakout 2017, and Brandon Woodruff was a dominant reliever and had a star turn in the playoffs. Jesus Luzardo is a top prospect who will spend some time in Triple-A, and Josh James look poised for a rotation spot until a quad injury put his opening day status in question. All five make for attractive, high-K fliers.
Michael Pineda, back after a year of recovering from Tommy John surgery, is always an appealing late-round option, and Steven Matz seemingly got back on track after a dreadful 2017. He still gives up too many homers, but he’s back to striking out almost a batter per inning. Along with Lance Lynn, Matz is a top strikeout option to target late in drafts. Sonny Gray is also an intriguing option now that he’s in the NL and away from the pressures of the Yankees organization.
Marco Gonzalez has a low-BB profile that should make him a nice WHIP helper, and Julio Teheran used to fit that bill before having control issues the past two years.
TIER 5A (26-and-under sleepers) Touki Toussaint, Braves Luke Weaver, D-backs Jesus Luzardo, A’s Brandon Woodruff, Brewers Josh James, Astros Ross Stripling, Dodgers Zach Eflin, Phillies Trevor Williams, Pirates
TIER 5B (27-and-over bounce-backs) Anibal Sanchez, Nationals Marco Gonzales, Mariners Kevin Gausman, Braves CC Sabathia, Yankees Mike Minor, Rangers Sonny Gray, Reds Wade Miley, Astros Julio Teheran, Braves Steven Matz, Mets Lance Lynn, Rangers Michael Pineda, Twins Gio Gonzalez, Yankees
More SP deep sleepers
These pitchers are basically the same as in the last tier, just with even more question marks. There are plenty of talented pitchers in this tier, particularly the young sleepers Forrest Whitley, who’s arguably the top pitching prospect in all of baseball, and Brent Honeywell, who was a top pitching prospect before missing last season due to Tommy John surgery. There will be some surprises that come from this tier, but it’s tough to trust any on draft day unless you’re in a deep league or you really waited on pitching.
TIER 6 Trevor Cahill, Angels Danny Duffy, Royals Jake Odorizzi, Twins Reynaldo Lopez, White Sox Jhoulys Chacin, Brewers Tyler Anderson, Rockies Dylan Bundy, Orioles Trevor Richards, Marlins Marcus Stroman, Blue Jays Aaron Sanchez, Blue Jays Carlos Rodon, White Sox Mike Leake, Mariners Mike Fiers, A’s Jake Faria, Rays Forrest Whitley, Astros Mike Soroka, Braves Brent Honeywell, Rays Brad Keller, Royals Matt Harvey, Angels Anthony DeSclafani, Reds Dereck Rodriguez, Giants Lucas Giolito, White Sox Jeff Samardzija, Giants Adam Wainwright, Cardinals Felix Hernandez, Mariners Clay Buchholz, Blue Jays Ryan Borucki, Blue Jays Chase Anderson, Brewers Jordan Zimmermann, Tigers Drew Smyly, Rangers Taijuan Walker, Diamondbacks Ivan Nova, White Sox Freddy Peralta, Brewers
